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Overconfidence and the Frailty of Knowledge

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Summary: Wonderfest discusses the complex of human overconfidence and the frailty of knowledge. While self-confidence is a prized human attribute, too much confidence can be obnoxious, pernicious, and even deadly. This audience-participation skeptalk will present a simple 10-question quiz to measure an important aspect of individual self-confidence. With analysis and discussion of these measurements, audience members will be better able to calibrate properly their personal levels of self-confidence. The ultimate goal will be a "healthier skepticism" toward one's own depth of knowledge about the world. Presented in collaboration with the Bay Area Skeptics

Marilin Colon is a lecturer in the Department of Psychology at California State University, East Bay.

Tucker Hiatt is the executive director of Wonderfest, and a visiting scholar in the Stanford chemistry department.

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01 hr 16 min 40 sec

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01.: Introductions

03 min 27 sec

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02.: Definition of Overconfidence

07 min 17 sec

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03.: Two Types of Overconfidence

01 min 05 sec

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04.: Confidence Interval Quiz

03 min 18 sec

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05.: Answers

04 min 53 sec

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06.: Confidence Interval Quiz 2

02 min 18 sec

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07.: Answers

03 min 23 sec

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08.: Confidence Interval Quiz 3

00 min 53 sec

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09.: Answers

01 min 31 sec

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10.: Issues Measuring Overconfidence

07 min 17 sec

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11.: Factoring in Motivation

02 min 48 sec

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12.: Factors Influencing Degree of Overconfidence

06 min 47 sec

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13.: Frailty of Knowledge

02 min 25 sec

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14.: Predictive Power of the Law of Gravitation

03 min 31 sec

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15.: Hume's Problem of Induction

05 min 17 sec

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16.: Q & A

02 min 30 sec

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17.: Confidence That Tomorrow Will Be Like Today

09 min 00 sec

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18.: Overconfidence Among Different Groups

03 min 33 sec

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19.: Making Students Less Confident

01 min 15 sec

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20.: Sloan Digital Sky Survey

04 min 12 sec

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: Watch Full Program

01 hr 16 min 40 sec

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