Using his research from the Future of Humanity Institute, Stuart Armstrong shares how we are predicting artificial intelligence, or AI.
Stuart Armstrong's research at the Future of Humanity Institute centres on formal decision theory, the risks and possibilities of Artificial Intelligence, the long term potential for intelligent life, and anthropic (self-locating) probability. He is particularly interested in finding decision processes that give the "correct" answer under situations of anthropic ignorance and ignorance of one's own utility function, ways of mapping humanity's partially defined values onto an artificial entity, and the interaction between various existential risks. He aims to improve the understanding of the different types and natures of uncertainties surrounding human progress in the mid-to-far future.
Stuart Armstrong of the Future of Humanity Institute places the quality of predictions about the emergence of artificial intelligence on a continuum with other fields, showing them to be the least accurate.