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Q&A: Economist Daniel Kahneman, the Pioneer of Heuristics

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The Singularity Summit 2012

Singularity Institute

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Partner:: Singularity Institute
Location:: Nob Hill Masonic Center
San Francisco, CA
Event Date:: 10.14.12
Speaker:: Daniel Kahneman
Tags:: heuristics; decision-making; rationality

Summary: Pioneering psychologist Daniel Kahneman discusses his work on the psychology of judgement and decision making and its ramifications for the singularity.

Bio

Daniel Kahneman

Daniel Kahneman pioneered the field of heuristics and biases with Amos Tversky. He won the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on human decision-making.

Chapters

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29 min 59 sec

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01.: Introduction

01 min 13 sec

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02.: System 1 and System 2 Paradigms

03 min 52 sec

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03.: Awareness of Operation on Intuition

01 min 14 sec

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04.: How Much Do We Know About the Biology of the Systems?

01 min 20 sec

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05.: How Stable Is System 2?

02 min 13 sec

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06.: Which Biases Are Most Significant?

02 min 48 sec

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07.: Bias of Free Will

01 min 37 sec

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08.: Self-Quantification Movements

02 min 10 sec

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09.: Funny Anecdotes

02 min 08 sec

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10.: Should We Challenge Experts?

02 min 20 sec

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11.: Can You Have Too Much of System 2?

01 min 27 sec

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12.: Getting Feedback on Beliefs

02 min 00 sec

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13.: Long Term Predictions

01 min 56 sec

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14.: Most Important Biases Concerning the SIngularity

01 min 59 sec

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15.: Artificial Intelligence Mitigating Human Biases

01 min 42 sec

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: Watch Full Program

29 min 59 sec

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Daniel Kahneman: Issues with Predicting the Singularity

02 min 09 sec

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Noble Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman comments on the most important biases concerning the singularity. Kahneman sees the major bias as believing in seemingly inevitable scenarios.
Watch Full Program

29 min 59 sec

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Encyclopædia Britannica Article

decision theory: In statistics and related subfields of philosophy, the theory and method of formulating and solving general decision problems. Such a problem is specified by a set of possible states of the environment or possible initial conditions; a set of available experiments and a set of possible outcomes for each experiment, giving information about the state of affairs preparatory to making a decision; a set of available acts depending on the experiments made and their consequences; and a set of possible consequences of the acts, in which each possible act assigns to each possible initial state some particular consequence. The problem is dealt with by assessing probabilities of consequences conditional on different choices of experiments and acts and by assigning a utility function to the set of consequences according to some scheme of value or preference of the decision maker. An optimal solution consists of an optimal decision function, which assigns to each possible experiment an optimal act that maximizes the utility, or value, and a choice of an optimal experiment. See also cost-benefit analysis, game theory.; decision theory on britannica.com