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Paul Saffo: The Great Turbulence, a New Economic Order

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Commonwealth Club of California

Commonwealth Club

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Partner:: Commonwealth Club
Location:: SF Club Office
San Francisco, CA
Event Date:: 09.06.12
Speaker:: Paul Saffo
Tags:: global economy; economic stagnation; economic instability; Economic Forecast

Summary: Futurist Paul Saffo believes we have entered a new economic order characterized by great volatility and turbulence. The 2008 crash was more than a downturn: It marked the end of the "Great Moderation," a two-decade period of mild business cycles and growth. Now many fear we are headed toward a prolonged recession (or worse), while others predict a new boom just around the corner. Who's right? Saffo, with over two decades of experience exploring the dynamics of large-scale, long-term change, thinks that both groups miss the point. Rather, he foresees that we have entered a new era defined not by boom or bust, but by a new kind of volatility. The global economy has entered what he calls the "Great Turbulence," a decade-scale new order that will be characterized by high amplitudes, short cycles and scarce equilibrium, which may transform politics and policy globally, threaten incumbents and create both challenges and opportunities for individuals and institutions alike.

Bio

Paul Saffo

Paul Saffo is a forecaster and strategist with over two decades experience exploring long-term technological change and its practical impact on business and society. He was initiated into the Ancient and Honorable Order of E Clampus Vitus in 2000 and is chairman of the Most Important Committee.

Saffo is Chairman of the Samsung Science Board, and serves on a variety of other boards and advisory panels, including the Stanford Advisory Council on Science, Technology and Society, and the Long Now Foundation, as well as the boards of several public and pre-public companies located the United States and abroad. He is also a Fellow of the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences and has served as an advisor and Forum Fellow to the World Economic Forum, which in the late 1990s named Saffo one of its "100 Global Leaders For Tomorrow."

Chapters

: Watch Full Program

01 hr 01 min 38 sec

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01.: Introduction

01 min 59 sec

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02.: Paul Saffo's Opening Remarks

00 min 14 sec

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03.: The Stewardship of Alan Greenspan: The Great Moderation

02 min 55 sec

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04.: The Roots of the Great Moderation: Thr Brentton Woods Institutions

02 min 11 sec

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05.: Erosion of the Great Moderation: The Washington Concensus

01 min 57 sec

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06.: The Impact of the Technological Complexity on the Great Moderation

03 min 39 sec

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07.: U.S. Economic Uncertainty Takes Hold: The Great Turbulence

03 min 10 sec

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08.: The Oddity of this Turbulent Economy: The Disappearance of Jobs

05 min 34 sec

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09.: The Future of the "Job"

01 min 41 sec

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10.: Where Does Power Reside in the Great Turbulence?

03 min 11 sec

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11.: Saffo's Recommendation for Making Sense of the New Global Landscape

04 min 05 sec

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12.: Audience Questions

00 min 15 sec

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13.: Q1: Can Either Party Make a Difference in Wake of Massive Change?

02 min 17 sec

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14.: Q2: Is the Volatility Beyond the Power of Government Institutions?

01 min 16 sec

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15.: Q3: What are the Attenuators to Volatility?

03 min 37 sec

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16.: Q4: How Do Corporations Make Long Term Investments in Volatile Market?

01 min 43 sec

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17.: Q5: Impact of Peak Oil and Climate Change on Volatility?

02 min 20 sec

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18.: Q6: Impact of Volatility on the Individual Citizen?

02 min 15 sec

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19.: Q7: Prescription for Full Employment?

02 min 35 sec

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20.: Q8: Public Works Projects are the Best Remedy for Employment?

01 min 12 sec

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21.: Q9: Importance of Consumerism on Volatility?

02 min 59 sec

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22.: Q10: What is the Significance of Evolving Consumerism? Attention Economy?

01 min 07 sec

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23.: Q11: What are the Social and Pyschological Consequences of Predictions?

01 min 29 sec

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24.: Q12: Is the Message Depressing?

01 min 26 sec

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25.: Q13: How Does Turbulence Deal with Global Population Growth?

01 min 53 sec

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26.: Q14: Mitigating Population Drop?

01 min 53 sec

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27.: Q15: How Do Previous Volatile Markets Jibe with Recent Flash Crash?

01 min 36 sec

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28.: Q16: Do Individuals Contribute to Volatility?

01 min 11 sec

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29.: Conclusion

00 min 00 sec

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: Watch Full Program

01 hr 01 min 38 sec

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Paul Saffo: A Crazy, Turbulent Economy Is the New Normal

02 min 49 sec

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Paul Saffo, Managing Director of Foresight at Discern Analytics, declares that the U.S. economy has entered a new era of great uncertainty. In what he deems the "turbulent economy", Saffo argues that "the new normal is volatility."
Watch Full Program

01 hr 01 min 38 sec

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