Dr. Henry N Pollack - Dr. Henry N. Pollack and his colleagues on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with former vice president Al Gore. Pollack has been a professor of geophysics at the University of Michigan for more than forty years, travels regularly to Antarctica, and has conducted scientific research on all seven continents.
He now serves as a science adviser to Al Gore’s Climate Project. Also the author of A World Without Ice, he lives in Ann Arbor.
It has taken just three centuries for human growth and rising industrial economies to bring the delicate relationship between ice and humans to a dangerous precipice. Ice carved Earth's landscape to its present state - the sharp Alpine peaks of Europe, the vast Great Lakes of North America, the majestic valleys of Yosemite National Park and the deeply incised fjords of Norway.
But as the climate change debate becomes more heated, are we at risk of losing these precious formations? Dr. Henry N. Pollack, author of A World Without Ice, explains why our cold natural wonders are disappearing while humans are prospering.
I am surprised at the inaccuracies in Dr. Pollack's presentation. For instance it is well understood that the Mt. Kilimanjaro's glacier is diminishing in size due to reduced precipitation. There are in fact a broad number of glaciers world-wide that have increased in size over the past 50 years. Sea ice has increased the past two years. Sea level rise has not yet increased at dramatically higher rates. A visit to archeological sites of ancient port cities in Greece, Turkey and Italy reveals that ocean levels were far higher thousands of years ago than they are today.
Contrary to Dr. Pollock's reasoning it is irresponsible to drive energy and food costs higher inhibiting social progress and contributing to increased misery for the billion people on the planet living at the margin on the basis of climate theory that fails to significantly demonstrate any climate change beyond natural variability.
When it comes to uncertainty on the scale of supposed global warming, and with the impact the proposed actions will have on humans and the miniscule impact that they are supposedly to have on the climate, it would be rash to take any further action. It's rubbish to think that we have a "major" impact when we only contribute 3-4%. And the evidence is to the contrary that it's caused by CO2; it is the warming that drives the CO2, not the other way 'round.
Here's something else he didn't think about: Did the increase in population cause the warming, or did the warming allow an increase in population growth?
Pollack gives one of the best introductory talks about Climate Change, and the certainty of the anthropogenic connection to it that I’ve heard. He speaks without hyperbole, with a scientist’s appropriate caution towards certainty and yet he conveys the weight of the climate change problem that man has thoughtlessly brought to the planet. I appreciate his efforts to try and get people to understand this weight of human impact on the ecosystems of the planet by pointing out and giving substance to his argument that man is the most important geological agent effecting the planet. I like that he presents our planetary pollutions and excesses in the context of how rapidly population has grown exponentially from the depth of the last Ice Age. 18,000 years ago there was an estimated world population of only 1 million. Today the world has a population of 6.8 Billion, 5.8 Billion of those added in the last 200 years. And I like that he breaks down the consequences of Climate Change into three timelines: near – within decades; middle – within a century; and long – within a thousand years.
The earlier comments to Pollack’s presentation aren’t very convincing to me. Just looking at the first comment, the lack of rainfall on Kilimanjaro, if true, would not in itself negate a larger Climate component contributing to Kilimanjaro’s dwindling glaciers and in fact could itself be an effect of Climate Change. The deforestation of Kilimanjaro through fires in the upper forest and clearing for crops in the lower regions also effects the local hydrological cycle of the mountain. More natural fires are a predicted consequence of Climate Change and the cutting down of forests for crops both contributes to CO2 and disrupts the natural water patterns on the mountain, an example of man as a geological agent.
It is hard to assign exact causes in our complex world, but our species has unfortunately played a larger impact than we often recognize. Part of this lack of recognition is we tend to miss slow, long term but large moving changes, our attention is more easily focused on short term “newsworthy” events; and part is we have huge economic investments in Business As Usual and it is very difficult to see change as necessary. What we consider as social progress has consequences and problems that we prefer to ignore, or worse yet, that we don’t even recognize until it is much more difficult to do anything about these problems.
Climate Change ignored will only get more difficult, painful and expensive to address.