FORA.tv

Fuel the Enlightenment

A World Without Ice: Man's Impact on Climate Change

Commonwealth Club
Rate It
9,174 Views
  • Info
  • Bio
  • Full Program
  • Highlights
  • Transcript
  • Download
  • More
Page 1 of 2 1 2
david l lucht Avatar
david l lucht
Posts: 1
Posted: 11.12.09, 03:28 PM
I am surprised at the inaccuracies in Dr. Pollack's presentation. For instance it is well understood that the Mt. Kilimanjaro's glacier is diminishing in size due to reduced precipitation. There are in fact a broad number of glaciers world-wide that have increased in size over the past 50 years. Sea ice has increased the past two years. Sea level rise has not yet increased at dramatically higher rates. A visit to archeological sites of ancient port cities in Greece, Turkey and Italy reveals that ocean levels were far higher thousands of years ago than they are today.

Contrary to Dr. Pollock's reasoning it is irresponsible to drive energy and food costs higher inhibiting social progress and contributing to increased misery for the billion people on the planet living at the margin on the basis of climate theory that fails to significantly demonstrate any climate change beyond natural variability.
Permalink
4TimesAYear Avatar
4TimesAYear
Posts: 35
Posted: 11.13.09, 02:53 AM
When it comes to uncertainty on the scale of supposed global warming, and with the impact the proposed actions will have on humans and the miniscule impact that they are supposedly to have on the climate, it would be rash to take any further action. It's rubbish to think that we have a "major" impact when we only contribute 3-4%. And the evidence is to the contrary that it's caused by CO2; it is the warming that drives the CO2, not the other way 'round.
Permalink
4TimesAYear Avatar
4TimesAYear
Posts: 35
Posted: 11.13.09, 02:59 AM
Here's something else he didn't think about: Did the increase in population cause the warming, or did the warming allow an increase in population growth?
Permalink
balanceact Avatar
balanceact
Posts: 6
Posted: 11.19.09, 01:56 PM
Pollack gives one of the best introductory talks about Climate Change, and the certainty of the anthropogenic connection to it that I’ve heard. He speaks without hyperbole, with a scientist’s appropriate caution towards certainty and yet he conveys the weight of the climate change problem that man has thoughtlessly brought to the planet. I appreciate his efforts to try and get people to understand this weight of human impact on the ecosystems of the planet by pointing out and giving substance to his argument that man is the most important geological agent effecting the planet. I like that he presents our planetary pollutions and excesses in the context of how rapidly population has grown exponentially from the depth of the last Ice Age. 18,000 years ago there was an estimated world population of only 1 million. Today the world has a population of 6.8 Billion, 5.8 Billion of those added in the last 200 years. And I like that he breaks down the consequences of Climate Change into three timelines: near – within decades; middle – within a century; and long – within a thousand years.

The earlier comments to Pollack’s presentation aren’t very convincing to me. Just looking at the first comment, the lack of rainfall on Kilimanjaro, if true, would not in itself negate a larger Climate component contributing to Kilimanjaro’s dwindling glaciers and in fact could itself be an effect of Climate Change. The deforestation of Kilimanjaro through fires in the upper forest and clearing for crops in the lower regions also effects the local hydrological cycle of the mountain. More natural fires are a predicted consequence of Climate Change and the cutting down of forests for crops both contributes to CO2 and disrupts the natural water patterns on the mountain, an example of man as a geological agent.

It is hard to assign exact causes in our complex world, but our species has unfortunately played a larger impact than we often recognize. Part of this lack of recognition is we tend to miss slow, long term but large moving changes, our attention is more easily focused on short term “newsworthy” events; and part is we have huge economic investments in Business As Usual and it is very difficult to see change as necessary. What we consider as social progress has consequences and problems that we prefer to ignore, or worse yet, that we don’t even recognize until it is much more difficult to do anything about these problems.

Climate Change ignored will only get more difficult, painful and expensive to address.
Permalink
NICKOLASGASPAR Avatar
NICKOLASGASPAR
Posts: 2
Posted: 12.01.09, 05:43 PM
I read some of your comments.....I totaly agree with you!!!. Some more tones of Co2 gases in the atmosphere will do really good . The Us and China are really good in burning coal. China opened 1 major power plants every 2weeks this last year (or the other way around?)!!!
Only vitamine C does harm in large quantities, dont take too many pils in one day. Co2 is OK!!!!
Now about how dangerous the rise of the oceans is and if it is really happening?!!!...thats all nonsense...I used to walk about 30 secs to the beach from home and now it only takes me about 15"..well maybe you cant call it a beach any more...because all the sand is gone (in ten years!!) Well thats not a problem, because all I want is to take a swim...
oh...also I cant spot any fishes any more with my googles. Some idiots scientists say that the sea is getting warmer in this area because no cooling and fertilizing process is taking place any more..because, as the idiots say..NO major river reaches the sea any more.... due to the exploitation from......humans they call them..I think..
Well its almost christmas..and I still ride my bike with a T shirt on and short pants...maybe I'll have to change my spicy menus...just to cool of, you know...
Ok I think I wrote enough .....Go do some more sceptic thoughts about mr professor's data accuracy, Blame all the posible natural causes, because our behaviour towards nature is excelent.................oh and have a great nap, it helps your skin!!!
Permalink
balanceact Avatar
balanceact
Posts: 6
Posted: 12.02.09, 10:15 PM
Thanks for the hilarious comments Nick. I was having a tough day but you cheered me up.. balanceact
Permalink
HiveRadical Avatar
HiveRadical
Posts: 2
Posted: 12.03.09, 03:34 AM
The convenience, and catch, of this line of scientific inquiry is that predictions, especially those attributed percentages or probability etc. are akin to a weather forecaster attempting to make a single forecast that they will never live long enough to see repudiated or vindicated.

You can have all the intricacy and detail in your models and simulations and measurements and projections and none of it actually can ever get a clear up or down vote until some time distant from now.

Certainly uncertainty is universal, and it shouldn't impair action on it's own.

This speaker gives the idea of walking into a casino where the casino owner personally guarantees that nine out of ten times you'll win. That's a shiny analogy but it's not a genuinely applicable one because loosing in this case is far far more than just loosing money. A more adequate analogy would include a more real and equivalent outcome for loosing. If we loose we're not just out a couple trillion dollars.

It's akin to saying that 9 out of ten times you'll win, but each time you loose half your net worth is gone and a friend or family member contracts a terminal disease.

The actions being put forward as the 'fixes' for the broadly labeled 'climate change' ill being claimed are as certain to destroy the lifestyles, lives and prospects of some of the most vulnerable, already impoverished, people on this planet. And not on a small order but on a massive order of magnitude.

We have the claimed 9 out of 10 probability claimed by scientists (where is there record on accurately describing the probability of anything like this? These are people as steeped and interested in their projections as the financial 'experts' who failed to see the current economic bottoming out. Why are we to believe their attribution of probability at all? What other predictions on a system this complex have they made and been vindicated on? Ahhh!!! There's the advantage of their profession!!! Their scope doesn't make it possible for them to have any actual experience in this, it's all based on looking at history as they interpret it. But as Nasim Taleb points out in his book Black Swan perception on history have us (all of us) very prone to making connections and conclusions that are not often justified as we think they are. We look at the situation, try and extract patterns, but since our perspective is inherently very very limited we presume to more knowledge than we actually have. Any time someone gives you a supposed probability on a complex system demand a record! DEMAND THEY SHOW THEIR BONAFIDES BEYOND MERE DEGREES OR PEER-REVIEW. LET THEM DEMONSTRATE THE CAPACITY TO PREDICT THINGS!

Especially when the response that they put forward would, by itself, decimate vast vast numbers of people in ways that are as certain as the reality that the climate changes.
Permalink
rgray222 Avatar
rgray222
Posts: 4
Posted: 12.03.09, 06:25 AM
Men who put on suits and get paid a lot of money to tell us the climate is changing is perposterous! The climate changes every day it changes every season!
In 1811 you could walk from NY to NJ because everything was frozen over in the mini ace age. The planet clearly underwent warming from 1980 until 1999 and now we have been cooling for the past 10 years. The arrogance of these people telling us that the climate is changing because of human intervention is simply wrong on so many levels. Of course we need to conserve energy, clean the environment and explore alternative sources of energy. These people have written books and staked their reputation on this so they will defend it to the death. Govt's have bought into this hook line and sinker because it is a way to generate new revenue. People such as Dr Pollack have made their money on books and talks and will never let this issue go! Climate change simply happens for reasons we do not understand! CO2 is not the culperite, people such as Pollack and his ilk are!!!
Permalink
balanceact Avatar
balanceact
Posts: 6
Posted: 12.03.09, 01:47 PM
HiveRadical – Apologies. I’m having trouble getting my thoughts in order this morning.

This is a really good commentary. It’s not often that someone presents the case against the climate science that points to anthropogenic climate change with your kind of lucidity and concern for people who are already hurting.

If I read you right the essence of your argument is this paragraph. “The actions being put forward as the 'fixes' for the broadly labeled 'climate change' ill being claimed are as certain to destroy the lifestyles, lives and prospects of some of the most vulnerable, already impoverished, people on this planet. And not on a small order but on a massive order of magnitude.”

First, I’m not a scientist, but I have enough of a scientific background that I can read actual papers and follow the essence of what is being said. For me the science is overwhelming. If you focus on this or that detail; this or that guess about the Future consequences of doing nothing about climate change, you will miss the big picture and frankly it is grim. We need creative solutions now; not foot dragging.

You are right. The disruptions and pain to peoples live and the world’ economies by accepting and acting on the predictions of Climate Scientists will be absolutely IMMENSE. The suffering will be great. Really, what I see is needed to meet the challenges of climate change and avoid a world without ice, we need nothing less that the kind of world wide effort that was World War II, BUT with all the combatants gearing up their economies to fight ON THE SAME SIDE..

I see much of the suffering around the world is already the consequence of human activity. Human induced climate change is just the biggest problem we’ve constructed for ourselves. It doesn’t feel as immediate as all the wars and greed and poverty that are so Now.

We don’t know how to think long term. We take what we want, Now. We don’t recognize that resources we use are not infinite; that the pollutions from our machines and products just don’t disappear; that our destruction of the planets surface for our own benefit has consequences that are not to our or its benefit. Then add to these the essence of our tribe, hunter gatherer mentality, that’s the nicest way I could describe our tendency towards selfish hording and always wanting more, and I already see the world in deep trouble. Human induced climate change is our invention but we have failed to see the faults of our own species because it is so obvious that we are the brightest bulb on the planet, how could we do anything wrong???

Sometimes I think of Climate Change as a slow moving train that we’ve set in motion and we are standing on the railroad tracks reading the WSJ and we think that if we just hold up a hand we can keep reading or do whatever we want to do and our mere hand will stop this train or simply get of the track.. The problem is it looks like such a slow moving train that we don’t see that it is centuries long and in geological time barreling down on us at frightening speed. We don’t know how to think long term.

Pollack pointed out two things that you don’t get in the everyday article. In his opinion, (and you can dispute this but try consider it) Man is the most important geological agent on the planet. If true, if even close to true, that statement has serious implications for the Future. The other point he made that you seem to be missing is that Climate Change is already happening Now. When the worlds glaciers melt out in 20-30-40 years, say a big prayer for the impoverished countries of the third world as their citizens which you clearly have feelings for, will die like the worst plague you could imagine. What plague could be worse than no water to drink???? Clean water is already a huge problem for much of the world, rent “Flow” on Netflix, but it will shortly become a Catastrophic problem. Shortly, 20-30-40 years.

Today California took a huge step. Bless Arnie, he can be a real visionary.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...MN031ATUGC.DTL

And at the same time you have this article on the web about the CRU hacked emails being discussed in Congress.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/sci_climate_hearing

When I read a news wire story like this I like to look around the page to see if other stuff adds perspective.

First, I noticed the two videos at the bottom left and watched both of them: one on the shrinking glaciers in China (I'd never heard about those) and another about problems for Greenland natives who can no longer hunt because climate change has so weaken and shifted Bay ice that they can no longer trust going across it with their dog sleds. Both of these are excellent little stories.

Then I shifted back to the top of the story and just started scrolling through the big slide show over in the left margin. This is interesting because in a matter of seconds you can see pictures of things, conditions around the world, that most Americans don't even know exist. In seconds you can get a feel for how people who are already being seriously effected by climate change are responding, like the Nepalese. The Nepal cabinet is meeting at Gorakshep base camp on Friday (the highest cabinet meeting ever) to highlight the threat of global warming on the Himalayas.

Continuing on I found a picture of James Hansen with a title that he wants Copenhagen to fail!!! THAT caught my attention so I traced down the original article in the UK Guardian. I found it especially interesting in that he used a metaphor about Cap and Trade policies that I had thought of a month or two ago! They are like the Catholic Churches Indulgences.. You can't buy off physical science any more than you can buy your way Heaven... Hansen's Guardian article is worth a read. He's gettin' really pissed, but then he is certain (he has done the homework) where most people are still clueless.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...e-james-hansen
Permalink
wsoutherland Avatar
wsoutherland
Posts: 25
Posted: 12.03.09, 10:08 PM
Want to have your research projects funded? Make them about climate change. Want to write a best selling book? Make it about climate change. Want to meet the Vice President? Do research on climate change.
Permalink
Page 1 of 2 1 2
Please log in or register to post a comment.
Advertisement

Related Programs

Schwarzenegger: Local Governments Can Lead Climate Fight Schwarzenegger: Local Governments Can Lead Climate Fight
00:15:01 min | 4,178 Views
Klein Gives Monsanto Award for Worst Climate Lobbyist Klein Gives Monsanto Award for Worst Climate Lobbyist
00:22:55 min | 6,103 Views
Federal Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel at COP15 Federal Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel at COP15
00:09:20 min | 2,492 Views
São Paulo's José Serra on Fighting Climate Change Locally São Paulo's José Serra on Fighting Climate Change Locally
00:15:30 min | 260 Views
Climate Change Debate: Will Green Put us in the Red? Climate Change Debate: Will Green Put us in the Red?
01:33:49 min | 1,769 Views

Browse Programs by Tag

Arts Books Climate Change Computing Conflict Credit Crunch Defense Democratization Economic Policy Education Election 2008 Emerging Markets Energy Entertainment Entrepreneurship Environment Film Food Globalization Health & Wellness Healthcare History Internet Investing Law Medicine Music Muslim World Natural Sciences New Media Personal Technology Philanthropy Religion Social Issues Social Sciences Sustainability Terrorism The Bailout U.S. Foreign Policy White House 2009

Advertisement