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Entrepreneurism, Begin With The End In Mind: Jon Fisher

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Page 4 of 6 « First 23 4 56
Dan Williams Avatar
Dan Williams
Posts: 1
Posted: 08.16.09, 10:52 AM
Unemployment is important but I think the real issue is the next bubble to come. It may be a severe devaluing of U.S. treasuries. It may be a loss of confidence in government because of the spending. It may be that we are not out of the woods yet and the markets give us another scare that makes the fourth quarter of 2008 look mild.
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Speechwriter Plus Avatar
Speechwriter Plus
Posts: 1
Posted: 08.14.09, 08:44 PM
I’m a professional confirming the first five minutes, twenty-seven seconds excellent!
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Jim Kantor Avatar
Jim Kantor
Posts: 1
Posted: 08.14.09, 01:53 PM
I attended this speech but didn’t get to visit with Mr. Fisher afterwards. I wanted to ask him how he came up with 10.4 percent as well as the previous data. We saw lots of charts and graphs but not the actual analysis that generated the specific numbers. Overall I thought the speech was very good.
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Bear Mkt Avatar
Bear Mkt
Posts: 1
Posted: 08.14.09, 01:05 AM
Wikipedia -

[edit] Historic bear markets
The most famous bear market in history followed the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and erased 89% (from 386 to 40) of market capitalization by July 1932, marking the start of the Great Depression. After slowly regaining nearly 50% of its losses, a longer bear market from 1937 to 1942 occurred in which the market was again cut in half. A milder, low-level, long-term bear market occurred from about 1973 to 1982, encompassing the stagflation of U.S. economy, the 1970s energy crisis, and the high unemployment of the early 1980s.

A notable bear market occurred between about March 2000 and October 2002. Another one occurred between about October 2007 and March 2009. A rise of around 40% happened between early March 2009 and early May 2009 leading to the usual arguments.
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Alex Fisher Avatar
Alex Fisher
Posts: 1
Posted: 08.13.09, 10:21 PM
(No relation) I think it will too. The unemployment rate that is. Do what he said that is. I think I will take tomorrow off.
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Laura F Avatar
Laura F
Posts: 1
Posted: 08.13.09, 08:34 PM
I liked this. I like my job. I hope he’s right.
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Media Check Avatar
Media Check
Posts: 1
Posted: 08.13.09, 06:20 PM
"When the conversation at a BBQ this weekend shifted from the heat wave, Big Brown and the woeful Mets to the economy, I mentioned Fisher's 9 percent unemployment prediction to a banker friend. "Those are European unemployment numbers," he cracked. But then he quickly looked serious and asked, "But do you think it could go that high?" I mentioned Fisher's research and the patterns in the data that show a correlation between housing-start drops and increases in unemployment in 1968, 1974, 1978, 1981 and 1985. Gulp. Conversation quickly turned back to baseball." Wall Street & Technology
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Gary Aesin Avatar
Gary Aesin
Posts: 1
Posted: 08.13.09, 12:39 PM
Dr. Fisher seems to have a track record as an entrepreneur not an economic forecaster. He did get the unemployment call right http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Fisher so I am willing to listen to his future economic forecasts at least until he gets it wrong.
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Adam Keele Avatar
Adam Keele
Posts: 9
Posted: 08.13.09, 11:23 AM
I know it's a company, but some people just seem flat-out greedy to me. It seems everyone wants to make a million dollars--the new "American Dream". As fun as it would be to have a lot of money, I realize not everyone can be rich and except that I will probably not be one of those that are rich--particularly being in the research science field. I've never made more than $45,000 in one year and I have everything I need, and for the most part, want--a great deal of this was made possible by the benefits afforded to me for my service to the active military. I've been to all but three U.S. States and some 18 countries on four continents (not all on the military's tab either).
I have nothing against people (or companies) of wealth or those that want to obtain it, it's just when that becomes your main goal in life, you generally lose the passion for what you do (if you ever had it to begin with). Now when one doesn't, I applaud those that have obtained substantial amounts of money and do good things with that "power".
--Adam
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mszlazak Avatar
mszlazak
Posts: 22
Posted: 08.12.09, 02:50 PM
Jon Fisher has not introduced a new lead indicator to the job market. Real estate is used by many others and I sent a link to Jon's video to a very prominent blog called Calculated Risk. This caused a post that talks about Jon's lead indicator, who has used it before and why some think Jon scenario is unlikely:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/20...ment-rate.html


Here is the counter argument:

"In most earlier recessions, the slumps were caused by the Fed raising interest rates to fight inflation. When the Fed cut rates, housing bounced back sharply (V shaped).

Although this recession was led by a housing bust - and that makes it look similar to some previous periods - this recession was not engineered by the Fed raising rates, rather it was the busting of the credit and housing bubbles, and all the related problems that led the economy into recession. Since there is still far too much existing home inventory, a sharp bounce back in housing starts is unlikely, so I think Fisher's forecast for a rapid decline in unemployment is also unlikely."

As to funding clean tech in the valley. Valley VC companies were formed by people mostly experienced in semiconductors and software. There are virtually none that have experience in the energy markets. My question is, what happens seven years from the time of VC investment if energy companies returns take the typical 15-25 years? Another Valley bubble bursting?
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