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Fuel the Enlightenment

Entrepreneurism, Begin With The End In Mind: Jon Fisher

Commonwealth Club
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Nancy Sterns Avatar
Nancy Sterns
Posts: 1
Posted: 08.07.09, 06:49 PM
He seems to be right and pretty cute!
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Terry Lindens Avatar
Terry Lindens
Posts: 1
Posted: 08.08.09, 12:18 AM
I haven't seen this kind of a forecast before. I'm not sure how much weight to give it but I think we should try new things since "everyone" got it wrong.
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Nicole Brewer Avatar
Nicole Brewer
Posts: 1
Posted: 08.08.09, 05:06 PM
This was pretty darn good. Who is he?
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Data Man Avatar
Data Man
Posts: 1
Posted: 08.09.09, 03:05 PM
I think Fisher may be more engaging than he is correct. One thing that follows the other is not caused or correlated even if it happens repeatedly. Many entrepreneurs lead by charisma and not true analysis.
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Jason Timmons Avatar
Jason Timmons
Posts: 1
Posted: 08.10.09, 09:44 PM
The forecast, based on commentary and analysis from University of San Francisco business professor Jon Fisher, tracked the correlation between decreases in housing starts and rising unemployment. Fisher (and it was all Fisher’s analysis, I’m just the messenger) tracked data back to 1959 and found that as housing starts fall, unemployment rises shortly thereafter. It’s an amazingly simple correlation, but so far has proved to be dead-on accurate.
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morellid Avatar
morellid
Posts: 1
Posted: 08.11.09, 05:55 AM
His model is too simplistic. Mr. Fisher may certainly have a valid forecast if housing starts have hit bottom. However, if housing starts have not bottomed, then right now may not be the best time to start a business, or invest in real estate as he alludes.

How do housing starts correlate with the Federal Funds target rate? I suspect they are also inversely correlated with a time lag. How does the Federal Funds target rate correlate with inflation? I suspect they are positively correlated with a time lag. How does inflation correlate with the real price of a barrel of oil. I suspect they are positively correlated with a time lag.

His simple model may well be accurate, but his prediction of the time being ripe to start a business may not prove to be so savvy.

At the same time, what is one, who has an idea for the social networking space, to do? Should he or she not follow the idea during the social networking growth period? Probably not. He fails to recognize that there is a great deal of unpredictability inherent in complex systems, such as our economy, society, and biosphere. The unpredictable nature of the system should not dissuade us from following our ambitions. When we succeed, we should recognize the traits and characteristics that brought us to that result, and we should also recognize that we were in "the right place at the right time."
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Janice Williams Avatar
Janice Williams
Posts: 1
Posted: 08.11.09, 10:44 AM
I heard Mr. Fisher speak at the University of San Francisco. One realizes this guy is very intelligent and articulate in the areas involving entrepreneurship. I remember he presented a single slide involving the economy that I thought was a little nutty. It is pretty impressive that his forecast was correct and I’m going to pay a lot more attention to him in this area. I don’t yet believe his Web 2.0 argument but maybe this time next year I will have something else to write.
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Vasil Avatar
Vasil
Posts: 46
Posted: 08.11.09, 04:04 PM
I wouldn't argue against Fisher's social media theory; he might be right in terms of web 2.0 hurting clean tech investment. However, I was very surprised when he placed Facebook and Twitter in the same category of non-profits. While Twitter is still looking for the best fitting business model, Facebook has been making money mostly from ad revenues for quite a while http://bit.ly/IsxpU
On the other hand, when Fisher encourages start-ups to sell out and talks about Facebook and Twitter "missed opportunity", he obviously does not take into consideration enormous growth which these companies undergone in the last couple of years http://bit.ly/rCV5N
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Rich Wilford Avatar
Rich Wilford
Posts: 1
Posted: 08.11.09, 04:56 PM
This is the first time I heard Dr. Fisher speak and I am impressed. There is a lot of necessary and unnecessary complexity regarding the economy these days and it is refreshing to listen to someone who was right offer a straightforward explanation.
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Michelle Anders Avatar
Michelle Anders
Posts: 1
Posted: 08.11.09, 07:19 PM
I agree with him regarding Facebook and Twitter and I also think the green companies are in a lot of trouble because of all the money they raised.
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