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FORA.tv Conference: EG 2008

Jon Kamen: Mass Urbanization and the 19.20.21 Project

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Tom G Avatar
Tom G
Posts: 4
Posted: 07.06.09, 07:32 PM
I know, it's been some months and the presentation attracted no comments.
But it's an interesting idea, and perhaps a good thing to do. There are qualifications to the idea.

To avoid 'magic think,' the presentation would do well to come to grips with the problems of peak oil combined with climatic change that is described in "The Transition Handbook." The idea is that, globally, conditions of increasing climatic turmoil and increasing energy costs will require re-localization of our global and national systems. Large cities require large complex systems to function and small local communities do not. Complex systems are more subject to disruption that simple systems. Cities are fragile and must be defended at high cost. Small communities are more self-reliant, resilient, and lower cost.

True, cities have a smaller 'energy footprint' then rural areas, but they also have low resilience and little capacity for independent local-production. However, if energy costs radically increase, the costs of cities also radically increase since most everything needs to be shipped to cities. The effects, and costs of natural disasters also are greatly magnified by the requirements of restoring urban complex systems.

Jared Diamond's book "Collapse" attributes the collapse of the Anasazi society to the building of a complex society and the resulting environmental damage which destroyed resilience and prevented recovery. Are we really so different? It is one thing to project the urbanization of humans into the future and posit a very attractive future by simply dismissing looming problems by saying that transportation, energy etc. has to be reinvented. It is quite another thing to ask: 'What is there on the horizon that gives cause to think the chance of reinvention of support systems for cities is more likely than not? Unless there is a good answer for the necessity of restoring the resilience of human society and the seemingly inherent low capacity for resilience in large cities, then perhaps it is cities themselves that need to be reinvented. Exactly what would reinvented transportation look like, what will replace cheap energy in ways compatible with climatic change and is there a timeframe required for solutions? Reinvention within such a context would be very interesting and veery entertaining.
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