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Nicholas Eberstadt: China's Looming Demographic Troubles

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The Hoover Institution

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2 Comments

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Periergeia

Posts: 142

Posted: 06.21.10, 07:59 PM

Terence... it would have been quite helpful if you had actually given a few data points that moved you to reject the basic content of this talk. Sadly, all you have to say sounds like a tirade without reason. The speaker did restrict himself almost completely to analysis. That he could not completely contain his disdain for China's policies is not hard to understand. He, like everyone who ever had to deal professionally with data concerning humans, can all to easily see the train wreck at the end of a billion lives in China. Having said that, the Party in China had to make a decision between limiting the population and a situation similar to what can be seen in India, where no such policy was in place. Where it probably went wrong was to keep steering too hard towards the same goal... to reduce the size of the Chinese population peek, instead of considering a softer landing at a slightly higher total population. But it is not even clear that this might have worked. China suffers from an enormous environmental problem which will only become worse as the GDP per capita and the energy consumption per capita keep increasing.

As far as the audience questions are concerned, how dis they "expose" anything? From what I heard basically all the audience did was to extend the depth of the talk with their questions and the answers they got were completely consistent with the data in the talk itself.

Now... we would be lucky if the US government actually got advice that was driven by this much data, instead of ideologically fermented nonsense. Sadly, until very recently, the US government would not even have listened.

Now, the future is open but if one can make an educated guess based on recent experience, the Chinese Communist Party will, eventually, make changes that will lighten the extent of the projected catastrophe. They are probably very much aware that Chinese society will not reach a balanced state until well into the 22nd century, but the same is true for the world population as a whole.

The resulting social experiment is as interesting as it will be tragic for many young men and women who will suffer because of the traditional preferences of their parents (the party, in this case, has not much to do with the problem, except, maybe, that it was inactive in preventing it). I have a strong feeling that the Chinese will go through this experience a lot more orderly than what the comparison with e.g. Eastern Germany suggests. I base notion on my intimate knowledge of the German and a much more cursory knowledge of the Chinese character.

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terence_laoshi

Posts: 1

Posted: 06.20.08, 02:08 AM

China's Looming Demographic Troubles

An extraordinarily biased commentary. The gentleman should stick strictly to analysis. Thankfully, the artifice of his speech was exposed, albeit very courteously, by audience questions and his unconvincing - and occasioally surprising - responses.

I despair that this is the quality of the advice being provided to the US government on China.

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