MoM: New Technologies & Designs for Vehicles

I have two rescued terriers at home and I am used to distractions. It's okay. This is conference bait and switch. I got up early. We are going to hear Steve Chu, we are going to hear Steve Chu and you get me, so tough luck. I am here and you are going to enjoy it, that's all you always did. Okay, so how long do I have to speak 20 minutes and then Q&A. okay fine okay. So you have heard Erve Miller talk about yesterday about most we did about sustainable mobility. And how Toyota is migrating toward this broader view and not just talking about the batteries or the sheet metal but the whole approach. They you know, how cars fit in the urban environment, how the fuels are going to use the where the energy comes from, what products there are and then the partnerships required to bring this to market and I will go fairly quickly because some of our partnerships involves air resources board in California, involves the air quality management districts in the bay area and in south coast and involves the university system of UC Berkeley, UC Irvine. There is four more issues major issues that that direct the efforts that our kids do at Toyota and throughout the auto industry. The fuel and - and energy diversity, CO2 reduction, air quality and urban congestion and that all we have just way through our issues and I am going to start talking first about fuel and energy diversity because that's going to be a big deal in the '08 elections. This is not the data I am going to present is not a Toyota data it's out there in the public domain. In fact, all the data I present is in the public domain. And if you want to question what I am saying or at the stuff you guys can go out and look at up and make your own make your own decisions. World oil production has risen eight fold in just a generation, we had 85 million barrels of oil per day that we use. By anybody's estimation, we are on track to go to a 125 million barrels of oil a day equivalent by about 2015 or 2020. I will show you why that's going to be a problem. We have had a distinct lack of progress in exploration. World oil production keeps increasing but the amount of oil we are finding is decreasing. Most of the oil we are finding is in the subsoil caverns very deep 15,000 foot stuff in the gulf. The problem is with that is that we can get about 50 percent of the oil out of any oil well, but you can't do that in the deep subsoiled caverns so those are depleted about 35 percent of the oil production. So they are they are expensive to produce that oil and the wells don't last very long. This is some usually pay attention of this is an economic graph and if you look at a lot of the economic theory, it says, we can use as much energy as we want because the more we use, the more money goes into the industry and the more ways they find of producing energy and I would agree with that it's true, yes but the cause become unsustainable, the geopolitics become unsustainable, the CO2 becomes unsustainable and the water usage becomes unsustainable. And if you there is a good example of that that's the Tar sands in Canada. Any of you should go out and take a look at that the 40 square mile lakes of highly polluted water there and the problems with the basins up there. Okay, so this stuff is from Dr. Peter Wells it's not a Toyota it's not a Toyota view. But I think it's interesting the way that Peter breaks up, oil production you hear about Peak Oil and things. It's not that we are running out of oil. It's that the production that we have for a sweet like crude is troubling. So Peter breaks up oil production with OPEC, soviet former soviet union that's FSU. So the first oil shock that Peter thinks that we are going through that's right now and that's why you see these high volatilities in oil prices. We are at about $78 - $79 a barrel today. You are seeing oil go down to the 50s $50 - $55 range this year so you thank you - so you will see this huge volatility in prices and that's because the Mexican fields the Canderel field is peaked in declined, the Norwegian fields are peaked in declined and it puts a lot of geopolitical pressure on the former soviet union and on OPEC. And in the former Soviet Union, you have seen that President Putin has said that Russia will be the world's only energy independent super power. You have already seen President Putin use energy as geopolitical tool within the eastern European nations. Though we think, Dr. Wells thinks that Russian oil will peak and then begin to decline sometime around 2015 which will set off another series of even higher protobations in the oil market, a much more volatility and what this is going to do is increase of pressure in congress and in the United States for energy security and I'm going to talk about how that's in the collision course now with with CO2 policy and with urban policy, so around 2015 that will happen the only thing that that will then - make the provision go off us being producer and if you look here, in Iraq they are - actually the nation of Iraq where if there is a nation in Iraq has the greatest potential at increasing their oil production of any country in the an OPEC I'm not saying that figures in to our foreign policy but it's interesting point of view. I don't make foreign policy, I don't know what goes in to that - okay. So here is where we are if you put the picture together. We have gone to on the on the left hand side from the seven sisters we have chose the original oil companies, we have gone to the oil shocks of the 70's we are going to where OPEC manages the market, now you have seen the market rise and fall in 500,000 barely day OPEC numbers that were released yesterday. We are going into where OPEC has to meet new demand OPEC needs about four trillion dollars invested in the next ten years to increase oil production. We are running about 25 percent behind that rate now and there is a real problem with investment security in OPEC nations and I would also say that in the United States of the major oil companies, 75 percent of the geologists and engineers in the oil company are my age and they all retire in the next ten years and there is nobody behind them nobody behind them to take that place and I would say that's also true when you start thinking about bio-fuels and stuff and like that in the mechanical engineering, electrical engineering, civil engineering the capacity of the United states to respond from a college point of view is diminishing. So here is what we see and then OPEC will probably peak and decline sometime but the key to this picture is that you don't see a traditional oil picture going out and coming up to a 125 million bills a day or 100 yeah a 100 a 125 millions barrels a day, you don't see it. So we are going to have to bring another types of energy in diversification and we are going to see some bio-mass perhaps, we are going to see the non-conventional petroleum eluted to the tar sands and the heavy crudes in Venezuela and we are likely to see in the United States and in Australia coal to liquids and there is a real problem with coal to liquids and that's sequestrating to the carbon even if you sequestrate the carbon - when you go coal to liquids, you come up with a very nice fuel the diesel fuel with no sulphur but the problem is that CO2 signatures about 1.8 times higher than just traditional diesel from petroleum, the whole footprint and even if you sequester the carbon and by the way we are not sequestrating the carbon yet but even if you do you just about on parity okay and it's so energy intensive the China was going to go this way but I think the Chinese have backed off to in colder liquids but I think that's still going on in the US and in Australia. We talk about CO2 emissions, world wide transportation, my part of stuff is about 17 percent of the picture I feel like we are 100 percent of the focus and may be I will just may be in paranoid, power generation is about 40 percent and you have heard some other speakers talk about the embodied energy in the urban structure, it's about 70 percent of the total carbon emissions are in the infrastructuring and the thing is the infrastructure decisions you make have they don't have a lifetime of 17 years like the cars that I make. They have a lifetime of 50 years or 100 years and that's huge decisions that they are un- they are undoable, you can't you can't put the toothpaste back in the tube once you make a high carbon urban decision okay. I can I can run out and change my cars and eventually over time that the fleet changes but you not going to do that with urban decisions okay so the first thing that we are analyzing well to wheel the emissions and you guys have seen this is a relative relatively crude way to analyze stuff and it talks about the CO2 emissions well to tank has the fuel and then the CO2 emissions tank to wheel that's the car and you can see by here that a gasoline hybrid vehicle like the Prius is about twice as efficient about twice as efficient or half the CO2 emissions as a gasoline IC vehicle just with non- hybrid and then you can see down at the lower part of this graph, the various ways of making a hydrogen and fuel cell vehicle. But these are relatively crude way of looking at things what our our team does and what Toyota does as we look at lifecycle assessment. This is a serious deal it's serious science. Lot of people play around at it and pretend they know what's going on. But I have to tell you the analytic part of this is is tremendous amount of work. We look at not just a carbon emissions but the NOx emission as the the soot of emissions the ozone emissions from the raw materials. How you get the raw materials? How you get the Nickel from the batteries? How they gets trans transmitted? How they gets processed? So, the raw materials and and embodied energy in the raw materials and then in the production plant, how we produce those materials? For for instant, if we use recycled aluminum, it has about one tenth the embodied carbon as using a raw aluminum. And for instance carbon fiber will reduce the weight of the core increase the fuel economy. But you just transfer the CO2 emissions back to the plants where those emissions go up. And by doing this, we can see the plastics are highest emission issue. And so, we are developing through Toyota R&D, we are developing plastics that have a zero carbon cycle where we are developing plastics from bio-based material and and plastics that are designed to be recycled. Then we obviously look at the emissions in driving look at the lifecycle input maintenance and then how the cars get disposed. We actually have R&D recycling center in Nagoya Japan where we look and develop new ways to recycle vehicles and we actually bring different types of vehicles in and look at the recycling process. Out of this is comes some things. Our planned United States have the zero- landfill policy. Not one napkin not one toothpick, nothing from our plants goes to landfill if you think about these are huge automotive plants; those you who haven't gone; go down the road to NUMMI and take a look. Nothing goes to landfill from our plants. We even when we paint our cars, the there is overspray and that's captured in a water bath. We filter the water, take the paint out and compress it make landscape bricks out of it. So, that that's what comes out of this lifecycle assessment. But for us in planning, what we do is we got a budget and here you can see the new Prius compared on a variety of criteria pollutants and CO2 and you can see where you can see very clearly where the pollutants occur in the lifecycle of of the product and then compared against a gasoline vehicle. So you can see what we are doing here from a lifecycle assessment. And we do this for every car we make. Okay. So now, I want to talk about urban congestion and population growth. Here is our population in billions and I think you all know this and I don't have to tell you this. And Erve talked about this yesterday, "The Cities takes up about four percent of the World's landmass, they use about 90 percent of the World's resources, 40 400,000 people everyday move into build environments urban environments. We are at about 60 percent in the OECD in vehicle ownership. If we apply those figures to world population growth in developing countries, we could expect a seat by 2020 or 2025 may be three to four billion cars on the road. That's not a linear relationship to the environmental situation. Because remember, it's a lifecycle thing. We got build the roads and factories on and on and on. So obviously how cars fit on the road and how we design for urban environment is very important. The next thing is water we playing around with water a little bit here in California as we start to use water from the Colorado River and our Snow Packs Melt and and as the South-west begins to go into a profound drought. And this is a report from Sandia National Labs. It was presented to congress, not Toyota's work. It was presented to Congress in December of 2006; and it looks at the amount of water used in traditional fuel and non-traditional fuel production. And one of the troubling things is the amount of water used in to irrigate corn to make ethanol. Not divide the country up, east of the Mississippi and West of the Missouri. East of the Mississippi, there is plenty of rain fall and you don't need to irrigate. West of the Missouri, is where the new land to grow corn. We will have to produce grow the corn if you are using the corn based ethanol scheme. Okay. With that lands and if you listen to the IPCC reporter read it, that land is going to start moving profound desertification as climate change moves into a prolonged drought. And what you will see from this Sandia report and and some of the studies I have read is that in those years when you have to irrigate the land to grow the corn you are going to use from 300 to 800 gallons of water per gallon of ethanol produced okay, so you might want to consider that when you consider bio-fuels from traditional agro business okay, and there was a report that came up from the OECD yesterday, it's on the wire and you guys should down load it and read it. Really if we are going to do bio fuels we need to do more sustainable practices I think to make bio diesel from oil palms if you are cutting the rain forest to grow their oil plantations, the oil palm plantations is probably not a productive way to proceed. So, with our approach, we want to balance reduction with consumer wants everybody wants me to make it EV or fuel cell car, do something like that pretending that the market will be there but if the market is hard it is really difficult and most folks wont pay what some of these technologies costs, so our job is to reduce the cost of the technologies to educate people about what we are trying to do to and to come up with a car that has a good life cycle assessment so we have got three things, develop the technology we are doing that, prepare society that's why I am here today to talk to each of you about the things that were going on and trying to get some kind of cohesive regulatory policy that makes all these make sense, we are probably not doing so well on number three I think. Prius development we have increased the product the both the fuel economy and the performance of the Prius on the order of about 30 percent from each generation now, that's just not going to be a linier situation so don't expect that we will come out with a new Prius in 2009 or 2010 that is going to be a 100 miles per gallon car but that's you know, we set hard targets for ourselves and we try to meet them, so the challenges for the new technology is customers and we have to be willing into accept them, we are in the process now of evaluating battery electric plug in hybrids in the United States, but we don't know, Toyota doesn't know what the right range of all electric should be, what the performance of the battery should be versus the cost of the car okay so we get I get criticized a lot because general motors have said they are going to put a vote up that has a 40 mile all electric range well okay may be that's going to work, may be it's not but we are working right now in the day trying to figure out what the what the proper solution is and that's why we are working with Dr Shiheen and Dr Leben back there and they are back and Dr Samuelson and Irvine and this air resource about to try to figure out what the right way to go is and also not just in California, but what the environmental signature is all of the United States because if you have like in Texas a TXU if you have a predominantly coal fired unregulated 40 year old cop man I have just created a longer tail pipe I haven't solved a problem I have just put a longer tail pipe along on the car so we have to we have to make sure the customers are willing to accept the the technologies we bring out and by the way the Prius didn't sell on itself when it first came out that was a long road, we have been out 10 years now and we are just now assuming a 100,000 or 150,000 years so, keep that in mind it has to be transparent to the user reliable, adorable as as continue as present vehicles like criticized a lot, go ahead and bring the car out now let the batteries fail take care of my under warranty - that's not happen people looks better 150,000 mile life out of the Toyota and that's what we are going to produce so we are working on plug in hybrids plug in hybrid if for those of you who don't know it's a like a hybrid car that has perhaps a larger battery that can plug in to the grid at night, you can recharge the we can recharge the battery from the grid and then drive to work or drive to a limited amount range on an electric motor okay, -- it will also have and our design have passive charging from the engine, it work like a a regular Prius, not all plug in hybrids do the same, this is a range of plug ins that you are going to see, actually it's a range from zero electric all the way up to a full electric battery electric car you can see where our grid connected Prius is on this map and then you can see a PHEB with a it is an EV with a range extender that's more the general motors Volt direction the the range extendity these going to really do - it really has to focus more on battery technology, the battery should really got to be there our our car - we don't have to have this much development on the batteries if we take a more modest approach and we can always add more batteries as a as a battery technology increases so I think it's a more pragmatic, get the car to market earlier kind of view this this gets into a lot of technical stuff but there is an all electric range where people on a plug in where people can put their car into an electric motor, drive it as an EV and then as the battery decreases it it will start and then the generator motor come on and generate in generate power. And on the bottom one is our car where the motor comes on and off based upon the engine management system. The problem with the all electrical range and the AER about is that, generally when you are driving in the all-electric range, you are going at fairly high speed, 30-40 miles an hour. So when your battery is exhausted and your engine comes on to charge the battery, the engine cold starts under high load. That's a highest emission you can have. In fact, lot of these converted cars we test have an overall emission signature higher than the standard Prius just because of the amount of emissions from the cold start. So you got to be care - I mean, we are not we don't play around about this stuff. We really try to look through all of the issues that that we are doing. Okay. So, here is way we work and this is the way. Some of my friends from Japan are here today and there is a when you are talking technically, there is a huge cultural and language barrier. So we communicate here with with picot graphs. And circle-circle means it a best. Circle means it's pretty good. Triangle means "Well, we might consider" and X means for "Well why did you even bring it up?" Okay. Because we because we want to. So you see that basic technologies we are looking at we look the primary issues, energy diversity emissions single fuel range infrastructure. And if we look at this, we will see EV's and Fuel cells are pretty good at the primary issues. In fact, they are also circle-circles. Energy diversity, who could get more energy diver in a fuel in a batter or fuel cell? CO2 hey, you are the good, and the emissions are perfect. But if you get down into, are they are going to work? Only these have a small range and it's yet to be seen that the public is going to adopt that they may or may be they won't. Fuel cells have a pretty long range but they tend that the cost of putting hydrogen on board at 10000 PSI is enormous and and it's a big infrastructure issue as you could see because we have got two "X's" down here on fuel cell and that's just as well, why would you even consider that? Okay. So the hybrids are pretty good at very thing and have a really long range. And if you see here, PHEV's or Plug-In-Hybrids, we are trying to bridge the gap between the Electric Vehicles and our hybrids. So that's that's where we are looking at. Okay. So now you guys know exactly what it looks like when I go to Japan. I go about once in month. This is what we do. Circle-circle-triangle. Okay okay. So, plug-ins change the source of the emission. Okay. We we don't want to let the utility industry with the coal industry, that's an issue that we have to do. We don't want to trade off one emission in the City Center for another emission and typically there is an environmental justice thing down the stream of our utility. So so, it the automotive industry is going to work. The electric industry needs to work. We can't just look at California and say, "Well, California's grid is clean". Because next door and next door and next door somewhere down the line, that grid is not clean. So we need to worry worry about this. We don't want to do a longer tail pipe. So here is what we have looked at overall, you can see that if we would use Plug-In-Hybrids in China, that it would be a step backwards environmentally from the Prius. If we use them in the United States with the overall grid mix, it's a little better. But it is from a carbon reduction point of view, it is probably not and it's probably not the best way to spend your money. In Japan and France, you will see it's a very good solution and in fact we are bringing Plug-In-Hybrids test programs in Japan and France. Now there is two ways to go in the U.S. We can clean the grid up sequester carbon and and become more like France and and Japan or we can follow the business as usual traveling become more like like China. I don't know how that's going to go out, but those are just things to think about and here you can see a comparison of PHEV's and HEV's, CO2 Emissions by stage. Generally there is going to be a little more emissions from battery manufacturing but you can see that there are also with the PHEV's and certain situations the bigger batteries well it make sense in some areas based up on the grid mix. So from a package at package at the same point, we would like folks from our center here and and they are training their students on design cast the real packaging challenge where to put these batteries, okay. You can see in the blue, the battery package of the 01 Prius and the I am colorblind, I think that's amber '98 model, here you see how big the battery space was. This is the Prius in the 04. This has got big room, fold down rear seats and everything. But well Plug-In Prius, one of the tradeoffs in packaging is we may loose the fold down rear seats. And you think, "Well so what?" Well that's a big deal because because if you can't use that car in your life then you are not going to select that car, okay. So it's a big challenge for us to learn how to package that stuff in and package the batteries in and to provide - this is true and you just run the numbers and you can you know get this from Dr. Anderman in the advance battery consortium up in Sacramento and 60 mile all electric range is about 12 times the battery capacity of the current Prius so that's the challenges we have to deal and that, it means that we end up a bit of doing purpose built design cars for large batteries which limits then the amount of consumer acceptance we are going to have. The other problem we are working on now is with battery life because of the cycle when you are going a Prius, we have a very short cycle it's called charge sustaining, we keep our charge between 80 percent and say 40 percent a very narrow range. We get a long battery life but if we are doing a plug-in hybrid we are going to go to charge depleting meaning we are going to try to charge that car all the way up at night or we are going to try to remind it all the way down okay so there is two different battery chemistries and if you look at the state of charges going on this graph and it was a little confusing and look at the green lithium ion because that's where we are headed you see that battery life comes down exponentially with this swing in state of charge so you have got a development in chemistry and the problem is is that the plug-in card has to operate in a charge depleting mode as an EV and the charge sustaining mode as a hybrid so it's a new type of hybrid chemistry that has to be developed and I know that people want us to rush this car to market but but it's a lot of work okay it's it's stuff that doesn't exist. So here is where we are - we should go to single cell batteries Toyota R&D, we develop modules, full battery packs and us we go into into engineering development and then real world testing, the one kind of a I get involved and you see the time and cost goes way up as you start to do real world testing because sometimes you hit a didn't and then you got to go back to the beginning again okay so it's a big deal. We have limited experiences with lithium ion batteries, we are learning more everyday, we have a mild hybrid bits out, we are trying to gain experience with lithium ion technology and in hybrid electric wheels before we put them into plug-in hybrids and we also need to understand about end of life on these cars. Dr. Anderman is somebody you should look up, Google his name. He provided this testimony to congress that he thinks that is that we can do a 20 mile PHEV only only after there is more and much more battery development and it's going to be a long ways before that. It might be the next five to ten years before we can develop these types of batteries and this is Dr. Anderman's opinion. So to commercialize PHEVs when it's in significant significant battery development we need to test cycle, there is no way right now to to agglomerate the fuel economy and the electrical efficiency in to one number okay so there is no way to do that. Some people in the Midwest pay three cents a kilo watt hour. Folks in southern California Edison pay 24 cents a kilowatt hour, so the idea of non levelized cost makes discussing this with with the customer makes extraordinary complex okay because it's an eight fold difference okay so and than your drive cycle hybrids gets criticized they don't deliver the fuel economy that's because the hybrid has a complex interaction between the IC engine and the battery and so your driving cycle how long you go, short trips, you are warming up the catalyst, there is lot of variability in that as you increase the battery range on the car that variability increases. So in my commute I come out of my subdivision on a cul de sac in to in to a high speed road - connect road and on to a free way and my house has a red roof - pink roof and you know chain link fences in back and and so for me a PHEV probably would be because of my high speed and exploration and I drive 50 miles each day. I get 48 miles a gallon, my Prius by the way. I'm going to expand the batteries and from then on the battery became an anchor okay and so that reduces the performance, reduces the fuel economy of the car. On the other hand my wife has a much lower speed commute and the car would benefit her. So in two households when - we both have Priuses by the way in two households the same car she would benefit and I lose okay. So that's the kind of stuff we have got to be able to discuss with people okay and its difficult issues I mean you know customers getting bombarded should it be flux fuel should it be should it be that and it's a big educational issue that we got to worry about. So, AB-1811 were in partnerships now with with the University of California as I said with the bay area air quality management district, south coast air quality management districts and NGO's the Universities, we are looking at urban transportation, that's why we are here today and we continue to do that. We are working with Zephyr Ned in Irvine where you see EVs the Rav 4 EV as station cars to expand that last commute from point to point rail and developing IT stuff for that we are looking at hydrogen electricity doing life cycle assessment, air quality modeling, in fact that's what the University of California Irvine will be doing is actually a air shed modeling with hands off, Toyota is not going to influence it actually air shed modeling, fuel cells and PHEV in traditional vehicles and what in how they will impact the environment, we are putting products into into the Universities we are putting fuel cells in PHEVs and HEV's and letting the Universities analyze how these fit in the urban systems and and how they impact the air shed -- these were the roles of the various universities here, air impact - modeling from Irvine Berkley and and Dr Shaheen and Dr Liebman they are really going to help us with the important part is find out what is the right mix of electric and battery and cost and stuff to - to help us design the car. We have got three process going on the cars we have in United States now and coming in are mules, they are just appoint in time, there are nothing more than that we have also got product development going on in Japan and we have got R & D going on in Japan to also for we have got three roles that feed back and forth and Dr Liebman and Dr Shaheen are going to help us so greatly feeding back into the real product that will come up someday. Okay, so, -- we have been at this game a while late, this is the trade to E-CAM which is a two seat urban electric car and the crayon system, this was developed in more than 10 years ago and in fact was in use in Toyota city up until this year and we deploy these cars in the United States and this was our attempt to figure out how you remember this was 10 years ago how you couple a urban transportation system some intelligent transportation system and electric cars together for a car sharing kind of operations. The problem we had at that time was it was real expensive to develop these purpose built ITS systems, well now I mean you have got you know, why got your black berry and your i-phone and all the other stuff the the IT has becomes almost trivial now from the car sharing world so, I can just get my black bay around, ride a train selecting one of these cars on the go it recognizes me when I when I get there and drive it and the way these works is the people drive from home and I bring him in charge steps to get free use of the car they are they are responsible to have the car charged at the station, they get on the train the go to their commute we have got them paired up with some body on the reverse commute, switch cars and they go back and forth so that's what we did that that program although is no longer in operation Toyota does just to test things I mean as as Erve says short term for as is a life time, longer time is beyond that well I am sixty years old so I think the longer term is probably different for me or I can make that so, we do this stuff and then it we don't forget about it we we have developed these approaches so we know what we are doing when things come up. Erve brought this up yesterday, this was the i-unit that that can I just put this in last night just for you yeah well he is the Vice-President I ma not he gets he gets paid for mistakes, I get punished okay, so I mean don't expect to sit don't run down your dealership wallet in hand and say I want an i- unit or - you might get an i-pod but you know you - but this is just, I just want to show you that we are thinking about individual mobility, urban mobility, now this is not going to work everywhere. It might work in Japan, it might work in some of the cities, we are working with down up the great great park and and some of the places that are doing ground up re re-urbanization but as an idea for us to see how we can improve individual mobility and this unit when it's park stands vertically so it's a very compacting parts into real realistically about a two foot space so this was done about four years ago you are going to see another version of it sometime or another you know, engineers Toyota engineers they get bored and they just do stuff and they are going to go crazy if we don't let them do some stuff the couple of them here today that by the media knowing that if they don't get a chance to play so, -- so that's the what Erve we were talking about that's one of the things and so we are still focusing on individual solutions the context for than isn't here yet that's why you are not going to see them down at your local dealer but as a context develops you know, it's it's kind of iritic process we show you kind of the things we are thinking about you guys start development then we get the regulatory policy and and then the market for this and the demand for this evolves. Okay here is my conclusion, -- geo-politics surrounding remaining oil supplies is going to focus on energy security, you are going to see this all the way through the '08 elections. In the '04 elections there was only one question in all the debates one question asked about the environment. Is that going to happen this time in '08? Are we going to - we are going to let all the republicans and all the democrats and and all the debater, we are going to let them talk non-substantive issues about energy and and geo politics and it's not for me to say. Climate change solutions are going to fight for shelf space you know, shelf space is when you go to the you go to the super market and all the high price stuff is up there and the stuff really want stand alone and I am an old guy I can't bent down and so I buy the stuff that I want so, it's going to fight for shelf space with energy security and land use issues and you are going to continue to see energy security meeting coal to liquids increase use of coal going down that way increase increase bio fuels and and I don't see personally right now I don't see a big push for sequestration I talk I hear about sequestration demonstration projects well meet - demonstration project means oh it's a nice idea we get around to it sometime okay well, I am waiting, - - and so so you need to concern yourself that decrease water supply that's going to be the driver, its going to be the driver here in California, its going to be the driver I think through out the world if you read some of the IPC reports you know they talk about massive population shifts, they talk about dust dust bowl conditions. I believe that decreased water availability and decreased water quality is a much faster driver than climate change okay it's probably a result of some climate change issues but but it's something that probably you need to focus on especially in the built in urban environment again you can't put that tooth paste back in the tube I think we should focus on the most profound issues first adaptation might be something that we want to talk about sometimes, I sold the day that the money from New Orleans was being diverted from housing to constructing the port, interesting I don't here by talking about the wet lands or anything like that and there is so you know, so, we need start talking about those issues too because I think that the idea of climate change is just to save the eco-systems and if we don't talk about saving the ecosystems and a adaptation, then what are we going to do is it seems to be a dirty word to talk about adaptation societal preparation, we need to be prepared I think you are going to see rising energy costs you are not going to sequester Carbon at three cents a Kilo watt hour, we need to prepare society for increased energy prices so we can reduce carbon carbon reduction doesn't come for free okay so, thanks guys for paying attention and I am sorry for the bait and switch.