The Future of the United Nations

My name is Steven Kull. I am Director of the program on International Policy Attitudes and Editor of WorldPublicOpinion.org. The project that I am going to be presenting this morning actually grew out of a collaboration that we had with the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. The Chicago Council on Global Affairs previously known as the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations has been doing polls of the American public since the early 70s and this time in 2000 and for the late 2006 poll, they not only polled the US but China and India as well. Well some other research centers in some other countries just said, we we have some interest in participating as well and running some of the same questions to get the comparable data. So we took a lead there and recruited research centers in other countries all around the world. And in the in the course of it we are poll together 18 countries, representatives from research centers in 18 countries plus the Palestinian territories. And we sent the questions to them. They had the options to decide which questions they would use, that we made some strong suggestions. So we don't have every country answering every question. And there were a series of questions that were covered and a cluster of them focuses on the United Nations and the future of the United Nations which is what I am going to be presenting to you today. Later I am also going to be presenting some of the key findings of our comprehensive review or digest of American opinion on the United Nations. And what we have done here is taken all of the polling data from all sources, pulled it all together and into this singular analysis that's that's available here and I am going to hit some of the high points of that. But before I launch into the multi-country poll that we did with the Chicago Council I want to show you a few findings from the one of that we did in that came out in winter 2005 which is one that we did with Globe Scan for the BBC World Service because in some ways it sets up some of the key questions that we try to answer later, more recently. And the this was a poll that was done, I think, it was 25 countries and the question we asked was the first we asked is, do you think each of the following is having a mainly positive or mainly mainly negative influence in the world and one of those was about the United Nations. And you can see that overall it was the view was quite positive. The UN was having a mostly positive influence in the world. And with majorities in most countries, say in most of the positive, but in every country at least a plurality saying that it was mostly positive, in all of these graphs you will see this white space in the bars you know, between the mainly positive and mainly negative. Those are the people who said that they don't know or declined to answer. The average was 66 percent saying that it was the influence UN influence was mainly positive. We also asked about the possibility of the United Nation's becoming more significantly more powerful in world affairs and here again we got quite a positive response. Majorities in most countries, you know, many of them over 70 percent saying that they thought that that would be something positive. And a plurality in every case, 64 percent on average saying that it would be positive and this is one of the triggers that prompted some the questions that we're going to be exploring today. What do they have in mind when they say that they like the idea of the United Nations becoming significantly more powerful in world affairs? And so one of the ideas was that we wanted to push the limits on this to explore the edges of the envelope. Now first let me show you one or two other findings from this poll where some of those questions were posed. One was the where the people would favor adding additional countries to be permanent members of the UN Security Council and here again this was very, very positively received on an average 69 percent, including the 70 percent of Americans and the Chinese 54 percent, the Russians the lowest at 44 percent, but still plurality, the British 74 percent positive and the French 67 percent positive. So even the countries that are that are now permanent members, even in those countries you had strong support. Now a little more radical idea, here again we are trying to push the envelope a bit. We asked well assuming on there are currently five permanent members of the UN Security Council any one of them can veto any resolution. Some people have proposed that there should be changed so that if a decision was supported by all the other members. No one member could veto the decision would you favor or oppose this change. Now this isn't completely eliminating the veto but it does give the UN Security Council the opportunity to override the veto, of a permanent member. And here again, and it's not quite as robust, on average 58 percent endorse the idea. And the Russians and the French were about equally divided on this this question with lot of the Russians saying that they didn't know. But overall strong support in - American's 57 percent supported it, plurality of the Chinese at 48 percent. And the British were supported, where are they. Jumping out of me but they are I here, they are supportive. So now turning to the to the new poll though that we did with the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, let me tell you little bit more about about the methodology. As I mentioned the first three that were done were US, India and China by the Chicago Council. In India and China these are nation wide samples, by the way, which is quite unusual to get those and these were conducted by Globe Scan in the US, it was conducted by knowledge networks. Then we polled in Argentina, Armenia, Australia with the Lowy Institute, some of you maybe familiar with that organization. It's a research center there. In France we actually sponsored that and in Iran we were able to add some questions for a larger poll that we were doing there. In Israel with the Tami Steinmetz Center which is the University of Tel Aviv, in Mexico the (SEEDA) group which is also affiliated with University of Mexico and the Palestinian territories, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, (indiscernible) Center you maybe familiar with that. South Korea, the East Asia Institute, very prominent research center there that we have worked with in the past. Thailand, the ABAC poll, a research center which is with the University of Assumption or Assumption University pardon me and Ukraine at the Kiev International Institute of Sociology and the sample is varied but all of the polling occurred either, from the last half, most of it occurred in the last half of last year. And some of it occurred in the winter as well. Okay, first how do people feel toward the UN? We asked people on a scale of zero to 100 like a thermometer, how do you feel with zero being very cold and a 100 being very warm and 50 being neutral. And as you can see in all of the countries that answered the question, it was on the definitely on the warm side as these thermometers go. This is this is a very warm rating from 80 percent in Mexico, 75 percent in China, it's quite striking how positive the Chinese are about about the UN you will see that as we go along. 72 percent are in Armenia, Thailand 71 degrees, I mean, not percent degrees. South Korea 70 degrees, India 63 degrees this is, of course, and in the Palestinian territories 58 degrees and the US interestingly the lowest at 55. Americans by the way 10 to on this thermometer scales, just generally tend to be on the lower side. With whatever it is that they are answering. Now we asked about the goal of strengthening the UN and as well as that's a very important, somewhat important or non-important foreign policy goal for their country. And as you can see, very few that's the bar on the on the right there, or that section of the bar on the right there or that section of the bar on the right there very few across the board said that it was not important. So overwhelming majority said that it was at least somewhat important and in a significant number of countries the majority said that it was very important. Mexico 56 percent, as you can see overall in the US 79 percent saying it's important with 40 percent very important, Australians very strong 64 percent very important and the Chinese too 51 percent very important. So we also asked about the possible steps now for strengthening the United Nations and we wanted to, you know, again we wanted to push the envelope on this and see how far it would go before people thought that that was going too far. So first we asked about the possibility, and we said here is a list of possibilities for giving the UN more power, making more powerful UN and one was giving the UN the authority to go into countries to - in order to investigate violations of Human Rights and this got very strong support and majorities in all but two of the 14 countries and a plurality in Argentina and pardon me, I mean, divided in the Philippines but all the rest were majorities and some were rather robust. 92 percent in France, 75 percent in the US but interesting one here too is 64 percent in Israel, which you will - as we go along you maybe surprised to see how receptive the Israelis are to this, given the history of some tension between Israel and United Nations particularly in regard to Israel's treatment of the Palestinians. And then the Chinese which have historically been somewhat resistant to the idea of any intrusion into their internal affairs, 57 percent approved of the UN having this authority to go into human - into countries to investigate violations of Human Rights. So the argument that this is simply an internal matter and you shouldn't get the UN involved in this kind of thing. That doesn't seem to fly with most people around the world. Well what about having a standing UN Peace-Keeping Force, selected, trained and commanded by the United Nations. So this is not some kind of simply some rapid deployment force that's been that has been talked about. This would much further, the UN would have its own standing peace-keeping force. That it would have complete control over and here again, it's a rather positive response. To me this is probably the most interesting finding involved that to actually give the UN its own military capability and yeah, there is this very strong support right down the line, except once again the Philippine is divided and the Argentineans, just a plurality in favor. But all the rest clear majorities and 64 percent of the Israelis, 62 percent of the Chinese, I mean, I am highlighting once where there has been some kind of history of resistance to expansion of the power of the UN. The US, 72 percent favorable, so the - really no country where there is there is serous resistance to the idea, 62 percent of the Chinese, 58 percent of the Russians. Giving the UN the power to regulate the international arms trade, well I thought that was pretty interesting. There is 60 percent of Americans you would think it's just a regulation not that the two words regulate and arms would produce significant resistance. But it was lower than some of the other ones but still 60 percent. The Argentineans, they lean a bit against it, French overwhelmingly positive, Armenians, Ukrainians, the Russians 55 percent positive. The Poles, large number of decays in just a plurality, Israelis 60 percent positive, the South Koreans 75 percent positive, Chinese 59 percent, Indians 57, the Thai's plurality positive, the Philippines finally have our first majority negative here, the Filipinos 58 percent negative on this. So when we look at, if you can reorder this just to see who is the high and who is the low. The French and South Koreans are at the top followed by the Israelis and the Americans and the Chinese close behind and then at the bottom the the Filipinos and the Argentineans, the most resistant. Now the touchiest one of all, giving the UN the power to fund its activities by imposing a small tax on such things at the International Sale of Arms or Oil. And this gets the softest response but and plurality of Americans is is opposed, plurality of majority of Peruvians and a plurality of Argentineans but large majority of the French are positive, plurality of the Armenians, plurality of the Ukrainians, the Poles. Russians are pretty much divided but a majority of Israelis, majority of Chinese, South Koreans, plurality of Thais, Indians and a majority of the Filipinos. So here again if you look at the highs and lows, the French, the Chinese, the South Koreans and the Israelis is the most positive. The Argentineans and well the Peruvians, the Filipinos and Argentineans the most the most negative. Now putting this all together and looking at the averages across the 14 countries who has each of these, most popular ideas are having a standing UN peace-keeping force on average 64 percent favored it. Giving the UN the authority to go into countries and investigate human rights, violations of human rights, 64 percent favored it. Giving the UN the power to regulate the international arms trade, 55 percent 32 percent opposed and giving UN the power to fund these activities by imposing a small tax, a plurality of 46 percent to 37 percent opposed. Now we also wanted to look into the the right of the UN Security Council to authorize the use of military force and we asked them, do you think the UN Security Council should or should not have the right to authorize the use of military force for each of the following purposes, then one was to defend a country that has been attacked. That's somewhat uncontroversial it's kind of a quarter stone of the collective security system to protect countries from attacking each other, or from being attacked by another. And not surprisingly you get majority of it is approving of it, but its quite robust, two thirds are higher in every case. Or what about intervention to prevent severe human rights violation such as genocide, this is just about as robust as defending against attacks from another country and you get large majorities in every case, approving it. Putting 83 percent of Americans and including 83 percent of Israelis and 78 percent in the Palestinian territories, now we wanted to we also went a little further here and asked about the notion of the responsibility to protect. This is an idea that has been, furthered at the at the United Nation has been officially endorsed at the the United Nations has a responsibility to intervene at certain situations. Not just the the right to do so. And this is a this is a new development. It's - it's a in chapter seven it's almost given the Security Council that right. But whether it has responsibility, is a kind of new idea. So we say, some people say that the UN Security Council has the responsibility to authorize the use of force to protect people from severe human rights violations such as Genocides, even against the will of their own government. Okay it's really underscored there. And then we say some people think the the UN doesn't have that responsibility. What what do you think? And here it's not as strong as the right. But you do get quite a lot of support for the idea. Three quarters of the Americans support this idea that the US has the UN has this responsibility of plurality of the Argentineans, a majority of Armenians, majority of Poles and French. Interestingly though the French have the highest negative number. Now even though they are, they are generally quite supportive of all of these things. Plurality of the Russians, the Ukrainians, the majority of Israelis and then here is probably the most interesting number of all 76 percent of the Chinese. Not only - not just the right that the 76 percent say that the UN has the responsibility to intervene in event of severe human rights violations. A majority of Indians and Thais, so there is again no country opposed. It's just a question of it ranges from a plurality to a strong majority endorsing the idea of the UN having this responsibility. Yeah in here are the highs and lows with the Chinese and the Americans and Palestinians on top and the Ukrainians and the Thais at the bottom. Now there, do you think the UN Security Council should have the right to authorize the use of military force to stop a country from supporting terrorist groups, quite strong support 60 to 85 percent. So up and down the line, quite robust. Now we will let's go into some slightly more sensitive territory given what, particularly what has been - has occurred with Iran. Does the UN Security Council have the right to authorize the use of force to prevent a country that does not having nuclear weapons from acquiring them. And this is a very controversial question because the Non-Proliferation Treaty is a treaty and it's entered into entirely voluntarily and to say that UN Security Council has this capacity to enforce this principle is - implies a new development in the norms associated with the Non-Proliferation Treaty. And what we see is rather strong support, large majority in Mexico, 62 percent of Americans, 55 percent of Russians modest majority of Ukrainians. The French you know, they get well wait a minute, they are divided. Not that was a little surprising given how strong they have the role they have played relative to Iran. A majority of Israelis, I guess the Israelis just assume that they are they would be regarded as already part of the club. So they are probably thinking in terms of others and that which would interest them. Now the Palestinians 59 percent opposed to this idea and I think if we had more Muslim countries here we would see, more opposition. And based on based on polling and focus groups you got in that region. There is there is some feeling that, that the the current NPT regime is unfair to the Muslim world. A majority of Indians and Thais and plurality of the Chinese. Now the South Koreans you get a majority against and I think that is probably related to the - their feeling which is expressed in numerous polls. We are dealing with the North Koreans. Yes there are a problem we are very concerned about it, but but look, don't you all come in from the outside. You know, just lets, lets everybody calm down and not lean too hard on our problem relative here. So, I think, that's how we can understand that. Now we we thought we would even push the envelope even further here. And ask about regulating nuclear fuel not just nuclear weapons. So to, so we asked about the using force to prevent a country that doesn't have nuclear weapons from producing nuclear fuel, that could be used to produce nuclear weapons. And here it's getting softer but still you get predominantly positive answers with the again the French are divided, and the Palestinians opposed and the South Koreans opposed. So follows a similar pattern. But it's considerably more positive than than negative. And the highest in favor are the Thais, the Americans, the Israelis, the Russians and the most most oppose are again the South Koreans and the Palestinians. What about using force to restore by a force a Democratic government that has been overthrown? Well this is this is you start getting more division here. Americans and Mexicans and the French are modestly positive. The Russians divided, Palestinians positive, Israelis positive, Indians positive. But it's pretty soft and that when you get into Thais, the Chinese leaning against and the South Koreans quite against it. So putting all this together, again looking at the averages of the 10 to 12 countries that answered in each question the most the clearest agreement is that the UN has the right to use force to defend or authorize force to defend a country that has been attacked 74 percent on average. To prevent severe human rights violations such as genocide, 73 percent. To stop the country from supporting terrorist groups 69 percent. To prevent a country -now it starts stopping down significantly to prevent a country that does not have nuclear weapons from acquiring them 52 percent, to prevent a country from producing nuclear fuel down to 50 percent and then restore a Democratic Government down to 48 percent. So there is there is clearly, they are top tier and then the lower three. But it's still interesting in every case. You got least plurality on average, supporting the idea. Now, we also wanted to focus people in on the question of okay, how about your country, how about your country accepting decisions made by the UN that aren't necessarily what you want and here for some countries this really got up against the limit. So we said when dealing with international problems your country, agree or disagree, when dealing with international country problems, your country should be more willing to make decisions within the United Nations even if this means that your country will sometimes have to go along with this policy that is not its first choice. And Americans, 60 percent said they agree with that, Peruvians 50 percent, Mexicans - yeah 46 percent, Argentineans 41 percent, the French very positive 68 percent. Now we got to keep in mind that the French and the US are also permanent members of the Security Council. Armenians they are against it, but the Poles kind of divided. The Russians, even though they are on the Security Council, they lean against it, the Ukrainians divide a little lot of, many not answering. Now the Israelis 54 percent favor which is interesting. Palestinians strong rejection and the Palestinians, its not that they are simply negative about the UN, remember they actually had a positive attitude about the UN. On some questions they are for the UN having greater power but when it comes down to them they they have a kind of have a real reaction against that with 81 percent. Here again, one of the more surprising things, 78 percent of the Chinese saying yes that we should go along even if it is not our first choice. The South Koreans were divided and the Filipinos, not surprisingly, negative. So looking at the highs and lows the Chinese the most ready to accept these UN decisions, followed by the French and then the Americans and the Israelis. While the most opposed were the Palestinians and the Filipinos. We also asked some questions about the WHO, World Health Organization and the world court, World Health Organization on the thermometer scale was, got very positive ratings. Even more positive than the United Nations, 58 percent or higher and - the World Court did not do quite as well but mostly positive and mostly on the warm side, Americans leaned just slightly into the cool side and the Palestinians were quite lower. I am most mystified by the Palestinians why they are so dubious about that. In general the Palestinians it's a complex picture because, you know, they do sight UN resolutions as a big part of their legitimation for the notion of their independent state and so they have this seem to have a a kind of ambivalence about these UN agencies but just as a comparison here is the once again the feeling is toward the UN. So the UN is kind of in the middle and WHO higher and the World Court a bit lower. Okay so I thought I would open it up there for a few question about the international poll and then I will take some time to look at the US findings as well just briefly.